A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
